Research

Peer- and editor-reviewed publications

Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context, with Leland D. Crane, Aaron Flaaen, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz. 2022. Journal of Macroeconomics 72 (June). [FEDS working paper #2020-089]

Boom town business dynamics, with Meagan McCollum and Gregory B. Upton Jr. Accepted at Journal of Human Resources.  [FEDS working paper #2020-081] 

Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: The case of payroll employment data, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz. 2022. In Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro, eds., Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth, University of Chicago Press. [NBER working paper #26033] [FEDS working paper #2019-065]

Changing business dynamism and productivity: Shocks vs. responsiveness with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2020. American Economic Review 110 no. 12:3952-3990.

Previous draft: [NBER working paper #24236] [FEDS working paper #2018-007]

This paper combines research from two previously circulating working papers: (1) "Changing business dynamism: Volatility of shocks vs. responsiveness to shocks?", and (2) "Declining business dynamism: Implications for productivity?". The latter paper was prepared for a Brookings Hutchins Center conference and is described here.

The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the Pandemic Recession, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Chris Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz. 2020. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Summer): 3-33.

Where Has All the Skewness Gone? The Decline in High-Growth (Young) Firms in the U.S., with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2016. European Economic Review 86 (July): 4-23. (CES working paper #15-43; NBER working paper #21776) [Web appendix]. Note: Figure 1 of the published draft is missing Y axis labels. See corrected figure here.

Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle, with Pablo N. D'Erasmo and Hernan Moscoso Boedo. 2016. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8(1): 148-98. Note: This paper originally circulated as "Intangibles and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle".

The role of entrepreneurship in U.S. job creation and economic dynamism, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2014. Journal of Economic Perspectives 28:3-24.

Other publications

Rising markups and declining business dynamism: Evidence from the industry cross section, with Brian Albrecht. FEDS Notes, 8 March 2024

Payroll employment at the weekly frequency, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz. 2023. AEA Papers & Proceedings 113 (May): 203-207.   

A note on industry concentration measurement, with Jacob Williams. FEDS Notes, 3 February 2023. 

• Note: Economic Census concentration data can be downloaded from the Census Bureau website.  

• Data for the years 1997-2012 are at https://www2.census.gov/econYYYY/EC/, where "YYYY" is the full year.

• Data for 2017 can be downloaded as a single file at https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2017/sector00/EC1700SIZECONCEN.zip. 

• For the purposes of the note, in 2002-2017 we focus on the combined taxable and nontaxable universe. In 1997, we use taxable only, as no combined category is provided.

• Our single dataset containing concentration ratios and sales for all available industries at all available levels of industry detail can be downloaded here: top firm share data compiled from Economic Censuses in Stata format

Business entry and exit in the COVID-19 pandemic: A preliminary look at official data, with John Haltiwanger. FEDS Notes, 6 May 2022.

Across the universe: Policy support for employment and revenue in the Pandemic Recession, with Robert J. Kurtzman, Byron F. Lutz, and Christopher J. Nekarda. 2021. AEA Papers & Proceedings 111 (May): 267-271.

Related longer working paper: FEDS working paper #2020-099

Tracking the labor market with "big data", with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz. FEDS Notes, 20 September 2019.

Review of Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business, by Robert D. Atkinson and Michael Lind. 2019. Business Economics 54:145-147. Published version here.

Note: Due to journal formatting constraints, the published version omits most references. See working paper version with updated references discussion here.

Leaving money on the table: Declining responsiveness and the productivity slowdown, with John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. VOXEU column, 12 July 2018.

Natural disasters and the measurement of industrial production: Hurricane Harvey, a case study, with Kimberly Bayard and Charles Gilbert. FEDS Note, 11 October 2017.

Declining dynamism, allocative efficiency, and the productivity slowdown, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2017. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107(5): 322-326. [pdf including online appendix] (FEDS Working Paper #2017-019).

Unraveling the oil conundrum: Productivity improvements and cost declines in the U.S. shale oil industry, with Aaron Flaaen and Maria D. Tito. FEDS Note, 22 March 2016.

Declining business dynamism: What we know and the way forward, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2016. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 106(5): 203-207.   

The decline of high-growth entrepreneurship, with John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. VOXEU column, 19 March 2016.

Working papers

Surging business formation in the pandemic: Causes and consequences, with John Haltiwanger.  In preparation for the Fall 2023 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (draft coming soon).  Originally prepared for the 66th Economic Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2022): Labor markets during and after the pandemic.

Research with Private Sector Business Microdata: The Case of NETS/D&B, with Leland D. Crane.  Previously circulated as "Business Dynamics in the National Establishment Time Series (NETS)," which was FEDS working paper #2019-034.

Entrepreneurship and state taxation, with E. Mark Curtis (last draft January 2018), FEDS working paper #2018-003 (under review). [FEDS working paper #2018-003]. Note: This paper originally circulated as "Entrepreneurship and state policy".

Collateral damage: Housing, entrepreneurship, and job creation (latest draft Jan 2015).

Permanent unpublished manuscripts

Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Chrisopher Kurz. (FEDS working paper #2020-030).

Using payroll processor microdata to measure aggregate labor market activity, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Christopher Kurz, and Tyler Radler. (FEDS working paper #2018-005).

An assessment of the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database with Keith Barnatchez and Leland D. Crane (last draft October 2017). FEDS working paper #2017-110. (FEDS working paper #2017-110, FRB Minneapolis System Working Paper 17-29).

Declining  business dynamism: Implications for productivity? with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2016). (Hutchins Center Working Paper #23)

This manuscript was prepared for a Brookings Hutchins Center event on productivity growth. We do not intend to publish this specific manuscript. Much of the material included in this paper is present in other papers, some published and some still in progress.

The Secular Decline in Business Dynamism in the U.S., with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014).

We do not intend to publish this manuscript. Much of the material included in this paper is present in other papers, some published and some still in progress.

Discussions and ad hoc presentations

• "Consumption zones," by Andrea Batch, Benjamin Bridgman, Abe Dunn, and Mahsa Gholizadeh. NBER Summer Institute 2023 Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, July 17, 2023

• "Business formation patterns before and during the pandemic" (ad hoc presentation). US-UK Working Group on Dynamism & Opportunity, September 13, 2022.

• "Structural change within versus across firms: Evidence from the United States," by Xiang Ding, Teresa Fort, Stephen Redding, and Peter Schott. NBER Summer Institute 2022 Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. July 19, 2022.

• "Measuring Business Exit," (ad hoc presentation). Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC). December 10, 2021.

• "Small and vulnerable: SME productivity in the great productivity slowdown," by Sophia Chen and Do Lee. 4th IMF Macro-Financial Research Conference. September 30, 2021.

• Productivity and resilience in COVID-19: A U.S. perspective," (intervention on "Balance policy approach to regional growth" by Alexandra Tsvetkova and Wessel Vermeulen). OECD Productivity Policy for Places Workshop. June 10, 2021.

• "Value without employment," by Simcha Barkai and Stavros Panageas. Workshop on Entrepreneurial Finance and Innovation. June 15, 2020.

• "COVID-19 and SME failures," by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova, and Nick Sander. Federal Reserve System Macroeconomics Conference. November 10, 2020.

• "High-growth firms: A macro perspective," (ad hoc presentation). Kenan Institute Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Conference, January 30, 2020.

• "Diverging trends in national and local concentration," by Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, and Nicholas Trachter. SGE/ASSA. January 4, 2020.

• "Entrepreneurship over the life cycle: Where are the young entrepreneurs?" by Andres Hincapie. Duke/UNC Innovation and Entrepreneurship Research Conference. April 4, 2019.

• "Non-renewable resources, extraction technology and endogenous growth," by Gregor Schwerhoff and Martin Stuermer. Federal Reserve System Energy Conference. October 17, 2019.

• "The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada," by Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou. J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities (CU Denver) New Directions in Commodities Research. August 13, 2019. (Co-winner, best discussant award).

• "The critical role of new firms," (ad hoc presentation). Kenan Institute Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Conference, January 31, 2019.

• "The impact of business cycle conditions on firm dynamics and composition: Enterprise entry and exit in Egypt, 1911-1948," by Cihan Artunc. Economic History Association annual conference. September 8, 2018.

• "Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries," by Markus Poschke. IFN Stockholm Conference Entrepreneurship and Innovation: Past, Present and Future. June 15, 2018.

• "Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy," (presentation to undergraduates), Union College, May 4, 2018.

• "Young firms in the U.S." (ad hoc presentation). Kenan Institute Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Conference, January 18, 2018.

• "High-growth entrepreneurship," by J. David Brown, John S. Earle, Mee Jung Kim, and Kyung Min Lee. SGE/ASSA. January 6, 2018.

• "Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy," (presentation to undergraduates), Brigham Young University, October 26, 2017.

• "Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from the shale oil and gas boom," by Meagan McCollum and Gregory Upton, Jr. AREUEA National Conference. June 3, 2016.