Journal Publications
Other Publications
Working Papers
Academic Publications
Declining dynamism, allocative efficiency, and the productivity slowdown, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107(5): 322-326. [pdf including online appendix] (FEDS Working Paper #2017-019) (AER link). Note: Papers & Proceedings volumes are not peer reviewed.
Coverage
Where Has All the Skewness Gone? The Decline in High-Growth (Young) Firms in the U.S., with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2016. European Economic Review 86 (July): 4-23. [pdf] (CES working paper #15-43; NBER working paper #21776) [Web appendix]. Note: Figure 1 of the published draft is missing Y axis labels. See corrected figure here.
Selected Coverage:
- Nick Bunker, "The consequences of unskewed U.S. business growth," Washington Center for Equitable Growth, December 8, 2015
- Jeffrey Sparshott, "What happened to the breakout startup?" Real Time Economics at The Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2015
- Leonid Bershidsky, "The tech revolution fails to deliver," Bloomberg View, December 8, 2015
- Bob Bryan, "US startups are on the decline, and it's terrible news for the economy," Business Insider, December 9, 2015
- Robert J. Samuelson, "The start-up slump," The Washington Post, December 16, 2015
- Thomas B. Edsall, "Boom or gloom?" The New York Times, January 27, 2016
- Ben Casselman, "The next Amazon (or Apple, or GE) is probably failing right now," FiveThirtyEight, March 3, 2016
- Geoff Colvin, "The surprising slowdown in startups", Fortune, March 18, 2016
- Adam Ozimek, "The decline of corporations," Forbes, May 8, 2016
- Fareed Zakaria, "Why is the number of U.S. start-ups falling?" Washington Post, May 19, 2016
- Governor
Jerome Powell, "Recent economic developments, monetary policy
considerations and longer-term prospects," speech at the Chicago Council
on Global Affairs, June 28, 2016
- Gary Hamel and Michele Zanini, "A few unicorns are no substitute for a competitive, innovative economy," Harvard Business Review, February 8, 2017
- Economic Innovation Group, "Dynamism in retreat," February 2017
- Ben Casselman, "A Start-Up Slump is a Drag on the Economy. Big Business May Be to Blame," New York Times, September 20, 2017
Declining business dynamism: What we know and the way forward, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2016. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 106(5): 203-207. [pdf]. Note: Papers & Proceedings volumes are not peer reviewed.
Coverage:
Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle, with Pablo N. D'Erasmo and Hernan Moscoso Boedo. 2016. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8(1): 148-98. [pdf]. Note: This paper originally circulated as "Intangibles and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle".
Presentations:
- November 2013 Midwest Macro meetings
The role of entrepreneurship in U.S. job creation and economic dynamism, with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. 2014. Journal of Economic Perspectives 28:3-24. [pdf]
Presentations:
- 2012 APPAM Fall Research Conference
Selected coverage:
- Richard Florida, "The troubling decline of American business dynamism," CityLab, July 31, 2014
- Robert J. Samuelson, "Where have all the entrepreneurs gone?" The Washington Post, August 6, 2014
- Ben Casselman, "Corporate America hasn't been disrupted," FiveThirtyEight, August 8, 2014
- Dane Stangler and Jordan Bell-Masterson, "Can millennials reverse America's declining rates of entrepreneurship?" Washington Monthly, August 17, 2014
- Salim Furth, "Help the economy: Update your resume and get a new job," The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2014
- Justin Fox, "The Disruption Myth," The Atlantic, September 17, 2014
- Economic Report of the President, 2015
- Speech, Jason Furman and Peter Orszag, "A Firm-Level Perspective on the Role of Rents in the Rise in Inequality," October 16, 2015
- Economic Report of the President, 2016
- Council of Economic Advisers Brief, "Benefits of Competition and Indicators of Market Power," April 2016
- Walter Frick, "Don't expect new crowdfunding rules to create a startup boom," Harvard Business Review, May 16, 2016
Other Publications
Review of Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business, by Robert D. Atkinson and Michael Lind. 2019. Business Economics 54:145-147. Published version here.
Leaving money on the table: Declining responsiveness and the productivity slowdown, with John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. VOXEU column, 12 July 2018.
The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Chrisopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz. For Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, June 2020. [pdf] [old draft: NBER Working Paper no. 27159]
Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Chrisopher Kurz. [FEDS working paper #2020-030]
Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: The case of payroll employment data, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz. [pdf] [NBER working paper #26033] [FEDS working paper #2019-065] (Forthcoming in the NBER CRIW "Big data for 21st century economic statistics" volume).
Coverage:
Changing business dynamism and productivity: Shocks vs. responsiveness with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (revisions requested). [Most recent draft]
This paper combines research from two previously circulating working papers: (1) "Changing business dynamism: Volatility of shocks vs. responsiveness to shocks?", and (2) "Declining business dynamism: Implications for productivity?". The latter paper was prepared for a Brookings Hutchins Center conference and is described here.
Presentations: OECD/BoC Global Productivity Forum, BYU, UNC IDEA Workshop 2017, Midwest Macro May 2017, Drexel University, George Mason University
Selected Coverage:
- Melinda Pitts, Richard Rogerson, and Robert Shimer, "A closer look at changes in the labor market," Seeking Alpha
- Nick Bunker, "What's happening to the growth of productive new firms" Washington Center for Equitable Growth, January 13, 2016
- Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, "Remarks on the U.S. Economy," speech at The Aspen Institute, August 21, 2016
- Brad Delong, "Should-Read," Washington Center for Equitable Growth, January 22, 2018
- Tyler Cowen, "Lower responsiveness to change is part of America's productivity problem," Marginal Revolution, January 26, 2018
Entrepreneurship and state taxation, with E. Mark Curtis (last draft January 2018), FEDS working paper #2018-003 (under review). [pdf] [FEDS working paper #2018-003]. Note: This paper originally circulated as "Entrepreneurship and state policy".
Presentations: National Association of Realtors RealtorU, Southern Economic Association 2016 meeting, NBER Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth pre-conference and conference
Coverage
Firm dynamics and local economic shocks: Evidence from the shale oil and gas boom, with Meagan McCollum and Gregory B. Upton Jr. [pdf] [new draft coming soon]
Presentations: - Resources for the Future, York University, Richmond Fed, Oberlin College, University of Hong Kong, Singapore Management University, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities 2018 conference, NBER Summer Institute 2018 (entrepreneurship group), IFN Stockholm 2018 Entrepreneurship & Innovation conference, Union College, George Mason University, ASSA 2018, Federal Reserve System Energy Conference
And sister paper:
Collateral damage: Housing, entrepreneurship, and job creation (last draft Jan 2015) [pdf].
-
University of Mississippi, University of Georgia, Brigham Young
University, University of Oregon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal
Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Using payroll processor microdata to measure aggregate labor market activity, with Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Christopher Kurz, and Tyler Radler. [FEDS working paper #2018-005]
Permanent Unpublished ManuscriptsDeclining business dynamism: Implications for productivity? with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2016). [pdf]. ( Hutchins Center Working Paper #23) This manuscript was prepared for a Brookings Hutchins Center event on productivity growth. We
do not intend to publish this specific manuscript. Much of the material included
in this paper is present in other papers, some published and some still
in progress.
The Secular Decline in Business Dynamism in the U.S., with John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014). [pdf]. We do not intend to publish this manuscript. Much of the material included in this paper is present in other papers, some published and some still in progress.
- Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis, George Mason University
- Noah Smith, "Why America stopped being a startup nation," Bloomberg View, January 20, 2016
- Economic Report of the President, 2016
- Council of Economic Advisers Brief, "Benefits of Competition and Indicators of Market Power," April 2016
- Jon Hilsenrath and Bob Davis, "Why China Trade Hit U.S. Workers Unexpectedly Hard," Real Time Economics at the Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2016
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